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96 South Main Street, Nephi, Utah 84648 - Voice: 435 623-0525 - FAX: 435 623-4735 News for March 26, 2025 |
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By Myrna Trauntvein The Juab School District Enrollment Study was reviewed and board members learned that making future projections was like looking into a crystal ball. Darin Clark, business administrator, with help from Dr. Royd Darrington, assistant superintendent, had put together data for the report. “We will, most likely, fall between a 1 percent and 2 percent growth rate,” Clark said. The communities in the district will continue to see more growth coming from Utah County. Whether those will be homes with no children or few children remains to be seen. However, he said, Utah’s fertility rate declined from 2010 to 2020 from highest to fourth highest nationally but remained the highest in the Intermountain West. South Dakota, Nebraska, and North Dakota have higher fertility rates than Utah according to a Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute study. Utah’s drop ranks seventh fastest and Utah’s fertility rate declined by almost 22 percent, the seventh fastest decline in the nation. “Our district student population growth rate for the last 10 years has been 1.56,” said Dr. Kodey Hughes, superintendent. “Every state agency in Utah is in decline because of the low birthrate.” Homeschools also were increasing, Clark said, which would affect enrollment totals. Using enrollment data from 2016 to 2024, a peak of 2,800 was reached in 2020 but then the Covid epidemic saw numbers drop to just under 2,600. “We reached our peak at the time of Covid,” said Clark. “We had a drop right after.” He said the district was now at 2,750 so it had nearly recovered. “The projection is, that by 2045, enrollment will be between 3,750 using the 1 percent growth rate and 4,000 using the 2 percent growth rate,” said Clark. “Currently we are the fourth fastest growing county in Utah.” He said that the district had seen a steady growth in student enrollment over the past decade. Elementary school enrollment fluctuates more than secondary school enrollment. “Juab Junior High and Juab High School will face capacity constraints within five to 15 years,” he said. In 2015, the population of Juab County was 11,071 and in 2025 it was 15,623, he said. By 2045 it is expected to be 20,179 and by 2065, it is projected to be 30,069. “Juab County is projected to grow 172 percent (making it the fourth fastest in Utah) over the next 40 years,” Clark said. “A 172 percent growth in students would project to be 4,791 students in 2065.” Utah, Wasatch and Washington Counties were higher. Mona Elementary had seen a sharp drop (from 420 students to 280) in enrollment when the sixth grade was moved to Nephi. In 2016, the school had 393 students and a future projection is that they will see modest growth but remain below previous levels. “Unless Mona City approves a large subdivision,” said Linda Hanks, board president. “That could change everything.” Mona City currently has a water study being prepared and has a moratorium on subdivisions until it is completed. Red Cliffs Elementary also saw a drop from 650 students to 550 when the sixth grade was moved. “The enrollment has fluctuated between 540 and 600 students,” said Clark. “The school is recovering steadily since the sixth grade move in 2020 and the school is expected to exceed 700 students by 2045.” At Nebo View Elementary, he said, the enrollment had declined from 370 students in 2019 to 292 in 2021 and rebounding to 354 in 2025. “The sixth grade removal in 2020 impacted enrollment numbers,” Clark said. “Future growth is expected but is not as strong as the growth at Red Cliffs Elementary.” The question was, will the trend continue or is an expansion needed? he said. Juab Junior High had seen a jump in enrollment when the sixth grade moved there in 2020. The enrollment is currently between 630-650 students, and the enrollment is projected to exceed 800 by 2045. “The concern is whether the school will be able to accommodate more than 750 students in the next 10 to 15 years?” he asked. Juab High School growth trends showed that the school had 685 students in 2016 and today, in 2025, they had more than 900 students. “The future projection is that the school will, potentially, have 1,300 students by 2045,” said Clark. “A key issue is whether there is facility capacity for over 1,300 students.” Another issue is will additional AP (advanced placement), college credit and vocational programs be needed? “Juab Junior High and Juab High School will need capacity expansions,” Clark said. “Perhaps modular classrooms or a bond initiative for expansion may be considered.” The district will need to monitor elementary school enrollment since Red Cliffs is growing and Mona and Nebo View have fluctuating numbers. Perhaps a boundary adjustment will be needed, he said. The district will need to prepare for future bonding or funding needs because, if enrollment surpasses capacity, funding for a new infrastructure will be needed, he said. “Could we change the boundaries?” asked Janet Ware, board member. Hughes said that might be difficult because Nebo View was already near capacity. Ware asked where the data they were using came from. Darrington said that some came from the Kem C. Gardner Institute, some came from the judicial system studies and some came from the district numbers. “The rest came from our extrapolations,” said Darrington. Clark said that as they compared data from different sources, all were within the same range as far as projections were concerned. Hanks suggested meeting with the mayors of communities in the district to discus their plans for growth. Levan would not qualify for a school because they did not have the student population to support one. Rocky Ridge is in the process of building their own private school. Clark said they had had an informal meeting with Nephi. “We will continue to discuss this,” said Hughes. Clark said that, even though one bond owed by the district would be paid in two years and the second in four years, the district did not have the tax base to bond for the cost of a new high school without a voter initiative. In late 2020, the Tooele County School District bonded $170 million for the construction of a high school in Tooele, a junior high south of Stansbury Park and an elementary school in Grantsville. Some examples of new builds are: Spanish Fork High School, In Progress, $127,431,753; Payson High School, In Progress, $143,024,495; Springville High School, In Progress, $177,683,183.
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